Affect, engagement, and mathematical literacy in East Asia: evidence from PISA 2022

Background International large-scale assessments permit comparative examination of affective and behavioural correlates of achievement, but whether these associations are shared or system-dependent across selected East Asian education systems remains unclear. This study examined adjusted associations among two mathematics self-efficacy indices, math anxiety, mathematics-specific behavioural engagement, and mathematical literacy in six systems participating in PISA 2022. Methods Three survey-weighted regression models were estimated using 33,824–33,854 students from Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China), Japan, Korea, Macao (China), and Singapore, with the two mathematics self-efficacy indices included as focal predictors. Equal-system pooled models, in which each system contributed equal total weight, incorporated the final student weight and 80 BRR–Fay replicate weights. All 10 mathematics plausible values were analysed for quantities involving mathematical literacy. Interaction models assessed coefficient heterogeneity across systems, gender, and socioeconomic status, and regression coefficients were combined to estimate model-implied indirect associations under the hypothesised ordering. Results Both self-efficacy indices were associated with lower math anxiety and greater behavioural engagement. Self-efficacy for formal and applied mathematics showed the largest focal adjusted association with mathematical literacy: a one-standard-deviation contrast corresponded to approximately 49 PISA points, and the association was positive in all six systems. By contrast, the mutually adjusted association between reasoning-related self-efficacy and literacy was specification-sensitive. Math anxiety was negatively associated with behavioural engagement and literacy; its quadratic association with literacy was statistically detectable but substantively small (incremental R 2 ≈ 0.0012). Behavioural engagement had an approximately zero pooled association with literacy, although system-specific coefficients differed in direction. Several associations varied across systems, whereas evidence of gender- and socioeconomic-status-related heterogeneity was limited. Anxiety-related indirect associations were small, and engagement-related routes were not supported in the pooled analysis. Conclusions The findings indicate a mixture of comparatively consistent and system-dependent adjusted associations across the six systems. Formal and applied mathematics self-efficacy was the most substantial focal correlate of mathematical literacy, whereas other associations were smaller, specification-sensitive, or more system-dependent. Because the data were cross-sectional, the results describe adjusted associations rather than temporal or causal processes.