Green industrialisation and global value chain reconfiguration: Domestic value capture, production positioning and foreign-input integration

Composite indices of green industrialisation combine manufacturing scale with technological and environmental attributes, yet they are increasingly used to infer whether industrial greening helps economies retain more of the value they export. Using 481 country-year observations for 26 G20 and ASEAN economies over 2003–2022, we examine within-country associations between a five-component green industrialisation (GI) index and two accounting-distinct dimensions of export structure: the domestic value-added share of gross exports and the final-product share of exports. In two-way fixed-effects models, a one-standard-deviation within-country increase in GI is associated with a 0.71 percentage-point lower domestic value-added share and a 0.78 percentage-point higher final-export share. Decomposing the index shows that the final-export association is carried by manufacturing scale, whereas the carbon-efficiency and material-productivity components are not associated with either outcome. The lower domestic value-added share is not robust to country-specific trends or a lead-placebo test and depends heavily on Viet Nam, whose foreign-investment-led manufacturing expansion contrasts with China’s rising domestic content. Re-exported intermediate imports nearly mirror the domestic value-added share and are treated as an accounting complement rather than independent evidence. The findings caution against reading composite green-industrial indices as evidence that greening itself reshapes value capture, and indicate that environmental upgrading and domestic value retention should be evaluated as distinct policy objectives.