Governance fragility, financing opacity, and radical-right mobilisation in Portugal (2019–2026)

This article examines how institutional governance failures, opaque party financing, and radical-right mobilisation intersect in Portugal during 2019–2026, with Chega as the central case. Using a qualitative, multi-source design informed by process-tracing reasoning, the study combines financial-compliance decisions, institutional affiliation records, dated governance indicators, and a bounded interpretive reading of party discourse. It examines three pathways: (1) financial accountability problems that restrict the reconstruction of political activity; (2) transnational linkages that create opportunities for political recognition and organisational learning; and (3) the framing of immigration governance failures through anti-elite and exclusionary claims. These pathways constitute a governance–radical-right mobilisation nexus, understood as a conditional configuration of opportunities rather than a demonstrated corruption–violence chain. A literature-based Italian shadow case clarifies the role of coalition reconfiguration and changing boundaries between mainstream and radical-right actors. The evidence supports distinct intermediate observations but does not establish illicit cross-border transfers, violent radicalisation among supporters, or organisational links between Chega and violent groups. The findings contribute to research on mobilisation, normalisation and democratic resilience, while identifying the additional evidence needed to test the proposed relationships.