Governing readiness: anticipatory defence governance in EU defence policy after 2022

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, EU defence policy has come under pressure to prepare for a more dangerous European security environment. This article theorises anticipatory defence governance as a temporal reorientation of EU defence policy in which future-war readiness is institutionalised through present instruments of production, procurement, stockpiling and military mobility. It argues that the EU's post-2022 defence turn is not only a response to the war in Ukraine or a renewed search for strategic autonomy, but a process through which anticipated future conflict is made governable. Using structured qualitative document analysis and policy instrument mapping, it examines the Strategic Compass, EDIS, the White Paper, SAFE, ASAP, EDIRPA, the EDF and Military Mobility 2.0. The findings show uneven institutionalisation across strategic, industrial, financial, procurement, production and mobility instruments. The article concludes by specifying how readiness has become a temporal principle of EU defence governance.