Defence readiness 2030: The industrial dimension

The EU and its member states aim to restore Europe’s defence capabilities by 2030, primarily to deter Russia. Achieving this objective requires a robust European defence industry capable of rapidly closing military capability gaps, ensuring technological superiority and sustaining military support, including during a large-scale war of attrition. After decades of peace dividends and underfunding, Europe’s defence sector was unprepared for the demand shock triggered by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Since then, progress has been made, but not at the necessary scale and pace. Reaching defence readiness by 2030 under peace-time conditions remains an enormous challenge, further exacerbated by the change in US policy, geopolitical strains on supply chains and technological developments. To meet these challenges, Europe must reduce its fragmentation and enhance its defence–industrial output. This implies systemic reforms aimed at optimising procurement processes, enhancing cooperation, and investing strategically in critical enablers and research and development. Ultimately, a unified European approach is vital to building a resilient, self-sufficient defence industry capable of supporting a credible deterrence posture.