The Specification-Outcome Discrimination and Evaluability Framework (Sodef): A Formal Integrative Architecture for Predictive Specificity, Outcome Compatibility, Testability, and Evidence-Based Acceptance

Predictions, forecasts, and future-oriented claims vary in the extent to which they specify their temporal boundaries, target events, success conditions, failure conditions, and admissible evidence. When these components remain underspecified, a claim may be compatible with a broad set of possible outcomes. Such compatibility does not, by itself, establish predictive accuracy, empirical support, or scientific validity. Nevertheless, broad compatibility and post-outcome reinterpretation can make the assessment of a prediction more difficult and can increase the opportunity for retrospective success attribution.This manuscript proposes the Specification-Outcome Discrimination and Evaluability Framework (SODEF), a unified architecture integrating predictive specification, outcome-compatible sets, evaluability, rule stability, evidence assessment, and the distinction between subjective acceptance and empirical performance. Its central mechanism is the Specification-Outcome Evaluation Mechanism (SOEM). Two internal pathways are distinguished: the Outcome-Compatible Set Expansion process (OCSE) and the Specification-to-Evaluability Pathway (SEP).A formal notation is introduced for the prediction statement, its specification, the outcome space, the compatible-outcome set, a reference probability measure, and several proposed operational indices. A normalized specification score S is defined, with underspecification U=1-S. A candidate evaluability index is defined by Aₒₚ=STR where T denotes testability and R denotes the stability of predeclared evaluation rules. Conditional monotonic relationships are derived, and a set-inclusion result establishes when a narrower compatible-outcome set has no greater reference probability mass than a larger one.The framework is illustrated through a primary conceptual case: the underspecified forecast of human interplanetary expansion. The manuscript specifies twelve analytical layers, nine relevant domains, eight analytical branches, a divergence taxonomy, five empirical hypotheses, three proposed studies, and a fourteen-stage research protocol.SODEF is presented as a research framework rather than an established empirical law. The proposed indices require construct validation, reliable measurement procedures, sensitivity analysis, comparison with existing methods, and independent empirical assessment. The principal contribution intended by this architecture is a reproducible method for distinguishing specificity, compatibility, evaluability, subjective acceptance, and forecast performance.