Education Expenditure, Tertiary Enrollment and Economic Growth in Uzbekistan: An Augmented Solow and Ardl Approach

This paper estimates the effects of education expenditure and tertiary enrollment on GDP per capita in Uzbekistan over 1999–2025. The augmented Solow model of Mankiw, Romer and Weil [15] provides the theoretical framework, and the empirical analysis combines ordinary least squares (OLS), the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test and distributed-lag models (unrestricted DL and Almon polynomial distributed lags, PDL). Gross tertiary enrollment rose from 8.6% in 2017 to 59.8% in 2025, an almost sevenfold increase, yet its effect on growth is lagged rather than immediate: the short-run effect is negative (γ₁ = −6.45; p = 0.034), a positive reversal appears in the second year (γ₂ = +3.81; p = 0.096), and the cumulative multiplier is still negative. The bounds test does not confirm long-run cointegration. Education spending has a positive effect on growth with a one-year lag (+3.40; p = 0.078). The results suggest that the expansion of enrollment must be matched by gains in education quality and spending efficiency.