State of the International Wine Markets in 2025: Contracting Trade, Fading Premiumisation and the Reconfiguration of the United States Market

In 2025 global wine trade declined in value, volume and average price. A similar combination occurred in 2020, but the current downturn has lasted longer and coincides with a sustained fall in consumption. Rising average prices, which carried the value of world wine trade through the past decade, no longer offset lower volumes, a pattern consistent with fading premiumisation. Combining global trade statistics with the ProWein Business Survey 2026 (n = 1,002), this paper examines where the contraction originates and how the sector responds. Both sources point to weak demand as the main constraint. Industry experts rank cost pressure, weak purchasing power, health concerns and alcohol policy well above trade restrictions. In the United States, declared import values fell much more than volumes after the higher tariff on European wine took effect, partly because of the weaker dollar, and volumes followed in 2026. 41% of respondents expect exports to shift away from the United States, while 15% of exporters to the United States report having redirected exports so far. The destinations that are still growing remain small, so reallocation is likely to appear in trade statistics only gradually.