Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Mangrove Ecosystems in Muncar District: Implications for Blue Carbon Conservation and Climate Mitigation Strategies

Mangrove ecosystems in coastal Indonesia, especially in Banyuwangi Regency, are facing pressure due to human activities and environmental changes.This study aimed to assess the spatio-temporal dynamics of mangroves and project changes in area and its implications for blue carbon stocks in Muncar District, Banyuwangi, from 2015 to 2030.A combination of Sentinel-2 data, multispectral Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) technology, and Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) modelling was used to map historical changes and project future conditions.Classification using the Baloloy algorithm showed a high level of accuracy (Overall Accuracy 98%, Kappa 0.96), with mangrove area increasing from 262.55 ha in 2015 to 309.90 ha in 2025.However, the CA-Markov scenario projection indicates a decrease in mangrove area to 275.38 ha by 2030, based on the transition dynamics derived from the 2015-2020 calibration period.The blue carbon stock estimation using a mean carbon storage value of 714 Mg C/ha (equivalent to 2,620 Mg CO₂-eq/ha), the projected 10.98ha reduction relative to the simulated 2025 baseline corresponds to a potential reduction in mangrove carbon stock of approximately 7,840 Mg C (28,746 Mg CO₂-eq).This value represents potential carbon stock at risk associated with the projected reduction in mangrove areas rather than a direct estimate of atmospheric carbon emissions.Despite historical mangrove recovery, the results indicate continued vulnerability to future mangrove loss and associated reductions in landscape-scale carbon storage.Spatially targeted conservation, rehabilitation, and regular monitoring are therefore recommended to maintain mangrove extent and blue-carbon stocks and to support climate-change mitigation and coastal ecosystem resilience.