Topo-climatic determinants of Cedrus deodara habitat suitability under future climate extremes in northern Pakistan

Species distribution in mountain ecosystems is strongly influenced by environmental conditions.In northern Pakistan, changes in climate are increasingly affecting forest habitats.Although climatic factors are widely studied, the role of topography and hydrological conditions in shaping habitat suitability remains poorly understood.This study utilized habitat suitability modelling to assess the ecological preferences of Cedrus deodara (Roxb.ex D.Don) G.Don, a keystone Himalayan conifer and Pakistan's national tree.Species occurrence data were gathered from field surveys and online sources.A total of 39 climatic, topographic and hydrological variables were analyzed, of which 16 were selected for the environmental species distribution model (E-SDM), while 6 climatic variables were used for the climate-only species distribution model (C-SDM).The E-SDM produced more reliable habitat predictions after incorporating topographic and hydrological variables.Although the C-SDM showed slightly higher AUC values (0.987 training; 0.925 testing), the E-SDM performed better in sensitivity (0.981), specificity (0.915) and TSS (0.904).Climatic variables mainly influenced the C-SDM, whereas moisture availability and terrain conditions strongly influenced the E-SDM.These results indicate the importance of local environmental conditions in determining the distribution of C. deodara.The E-SDM also identified a larger suitable habitat area (21473 km 2 ) compared to the C-SDM (17559 km 2 ), including additional potential conservation regions.Future projections showed relatively minor habitat shifts under SSP370, whereas SSP585 projected an initial expansion of suitable habitat by 2041-2070 (24378 km 2 ), followed by a decline towards 2071-2100 (20756 km 2 ) under intensified warming conditions.The study indicated climate-induced habitat shifts, emphasizing the need to prioritize conservation and restoration efforts in climatically stable and environmentally suitable regions identified in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir.Future suitable habitats projected under SSP scenarios may support assisted regeneration, afforestation and long-term monitoring programmes to improve the persistence of C. deodara under changing climate conditions.