Spatial Disparities in Cultural Tourism: A Multidimensional Analysis of Museum Attendance Dynamics in Bulgaria

This study aims to identify and analyse spatial disparities and structural stratification of regional museum activity in Bulgaria over a 13-year period (2012-2024). The primary objective is to evaluate the stability, growth trajectory, and resilience of regional cultural supply models in response to external and macroeconomic shifts, specifically the COVID-19 pandemic. A multidimensional statistical analysis was applied to panel data from the National Statistical Institute and the Institute for Market Economics, encompassing all 28 administrative districts in Bulgaria. Quartile grouping (based on visits per 1000 inhabitants) was utilized to differentiate clusters, while long-term dynamics and crisis resilience were assessed through specific indicators: Coefficient of Variation (CV), Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), Sensitivity Index (SI), and Recovery Index (RI). Through this approach, the districts were categorized into three distinct performance tiers: Highlevel (Leaders), Mid-level, and Low-level. The analysis reveals significant structural imbalances and high systemic volatility across all clusters, indicating a critical dependence on incidental tourist flows. A “scale paradox” was identified, whereby districts with moderate attendance volumes and a developed local product demonstrate considerably higher post-crisis adaptability compared to traditional leaders. Although all groups exhibit coefficients of variation exceeding 40%, the Mid-level segment achieves the highest annual growth (4.95%) and positive recovery (17.15%), outperforming the top-tier districts, which record slower growth (1.62%) and negative post-pandemic recovery (-12.08%). Empirical profiles highlight stable cores (Veliko Tarnovo, Gabrovo), strategic event legacies (Plovdiv), and nature-integrated recovery (Smolyan), contrasting with transitdependent declines (Vidin). The high structural volatility underscores an urgent need for a conceptual shift in regional cultural policies. Strategic management should pivot towards active audience development and integrated regional tourism products, linking public subsidies to institutional flexibility and proven post-crisis resilience rather than merely static volumes.