Bilateral asymmetric dependence and partner country trade network resilience: empirical evidence from China’s rare earth trade

Background Against the backdrop of intensifying competition for critical mineral security, rare earth trade has become a crucial window for observing supply chain restructuring and great power rivalry. Methods Drawing on the 2013–2024 UN Comtrade data on rare earth full-industry-chain trade, this article measures the structural trade network resilience of China’s rare earth trading partners at the partner country level, and examines the impact of China’s bilateral asymmetric dependence on its trading partners on their trade network resilience within a two-way fixed effects framework. Results The results show that upstream export dependence asymmetry is significantly negatively associated with partner country resilience, and that this negative association operates mainly through the structural stability and diversification dimensions, remaining robust under endogeneity treatments such as system GMM. The moderating-effect and heterogeneity analyses indicate that the negative association is more pronounced among partner countries with stronger resource endowments and weaker manufacturing bases, and that partner countries with lower income levels and higher trade openness are likewise more vulnerable. Further analysis shows that midstream and downstream import dependence is not significantly associated with resilience, and that no significant reverse association is found. Discussion This article contributes to understanding the consequences of dependence in strategic mineral trade and its boundary conditions from the partner country perspective.