EXPRESS: So Near Yet So Far: The Unexpected Role of Near Misses for Salesperson Turnover

Quota attainment is critical for salespeople because it determines their income, recognition, and career progression. Accordingly, salespeople who frequently fail to meet quota may become more inclined to turn over and try their luck elsewhere. However, not all quota failures carry the same weight. Drawing on the expected utility model of turnover, we argue that salespeople who repeatedly miss quota by a narrow margin are especially likely to turn over. This is because such near misses erode a salesperson’s confidence that they will yield valued outcomes in their current job while increasing the perceived attainability of those outcomes elsewhere. We validate these predictions using a seven-year cross-industry panel of 13,277 salespeople across 44 companies, three experiments, and multiple auxiliary studies. The effect is stronger when hitting quota is more important due to high variable pay and group performance homogeneity. Furthermore, we establish expected utility of switching as the mechanism underlying these effects. Our research introduces near misses as a novel antecedent of turnover and as a new trigger that can reshape expected utilities. Furthermore, our research allows managers to implement targeted interventions to retain valuable talents, such as preventing near misses or reframing salespeople’s expected utility once near misses occur.