Comprehensive Assessment of the Financial Efficiency of Tourism Investments in Azerbaijan

The study assesses how fixed-capital investment in tourism-characteristic industries in Azerbaijan is transformed into value added and identifies mechanisms for improving the performance of tourism finance. Official annual data for 2014-2024 are analysed using dynamic and comparative methods, investment intensity, a conditional financial-efficiency ratio, a post-pandemic recovery index, compound annual growth, coefficients of variation, and current and one-year-lagged Pearson correlations. Value added increased 2.48 times to AZN 5,973.8 million, while the sector’s share of GDP reached 4.7 per cent. Investment flows were substantially more volatile than value added. For 2016-2024, the correlation between investment and value added was 0.67; with a one-year lag, it was 0.63, indicating that investment outcomes emerge over time. The scientific contribution is an integrated framework combining current financial flows, value added, volatility, time lags and recovery from external shocks. The study recommends performance-based financing, regional project portfolios, a digital investment registry, risk-adjusted financial instruments, public-private partnerships and systematic post-investment monitoring.