The impact of the Puerto Rico economic crisis on fertility: a synthetic control approach

Lowest-low fertility has historically been concentrated in East Asia and Europe, but new cases have emerged in other regions. Puerto Rico is among the countries that have recently transitioned to a lowest-low fertility regime, with an estimated total fertility rate (TFR) of 0.94 children per woman in 2023. This transition occurred alongside a prolonged economic crisis that began in 2006. I explore whether the economic crisis is associated with a departure from the TFR trajectory that Puerto Rico would have followed if the economic crisis had not occurred. Using annual TFR estimates from the United Nations World Population Prospects (1950–2023), I apply a synthetic control method to construct counterfactual fertility trajectories based on global and Latin American/Caribbean donor pools. These counterfactuals show potential TFR trajectories derived from patterns observed in countries unaffected by the local economic crisis. Both models reproduce the pre-crisis fertility trajectory with a high level of accuracy, with a notable divergence emerging after the onset of the economic crisis. By 2023, estimated fertility levels are lower than the synthetic control predictions. Results suggest that prolonged exposure to an economic crisis may have enduring implications for fertility, leading to sustained and growing departures from expected levels.