Zero Points, Real Risk: Interisland revenue exposure from the Atmos Rewards Saver earning policy

Since August 1, 2026, eligible Saver fares on Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines have earned no Atmos Rewards points or status points, while Southwest Airlines' Basic fares continue to earn 2 Rapid Rewards points per dollar. This paper estimates how much Hawaiian interisland base-fare revenue could shift to Southwest if price- and policy-sensitive travelers respond. Three scenarios applied to 5,048,102 Hawaiian interisland segments yield annual exposure of $7.2 million, $34.7 million and $88.3 million. Southwest's capacity bounds the result. At the roughly 32 daily interisland departures in its filed March 2027 schedule, it could absorb at most about 276,400 additional segments a year, enough for the conservative scenario but not the other two. The estimates are scenarios built on unobserved behavioral inputs, not measured losses or a forecast.