Ice throw risk analysis for co-located wind and solar energy facilities

Co-located wind and solar energy facilities provide more reliable power production due to the complementary nature of wind and solar resources. One potential design consideration for such facilities is the possibility that ice pieces released from turbine blades may impact solar panels and cause damage. This paper describes a novel methodology for quantifying the risk of ice throw impacts on solar panels at co-located wind and solar energy facilities. First, an ice throw model is used to predict impacts via Monte Carlo simulation. A probability density function is fitted to the Monte Carlo simulation results and integrated within the bounds of the solar panel locations to determine the probability of panel impact. Local climate data is used to determine the expected number of panel impacts each year over an entire facility. The methodology is demonstrated for a single example turbine, showing that impact risk is a function of panel distance and direction to a turbine, icing frequency, and panel area, among other factors. Results for a notional facility consisting of multiple turbines and PV panel arrays demonstrate that PV panel arrays located within a setback distance of 1.1 times the tip height of the turbine generally exhibit impact risks between 1 in 1,000 years and 1 in 10,000 years. The proposed method may be used by hybrid wind-solar energy facility designers to assess ice throw risk and optimize the site layout accordingly.