A stage structured model for the suppression paradox in mosquito control

The potential risk of the suppression paradox in a mosquito control program based on the incompatible insect technique by actually raising the stable level of wild mosquito populations was assessed theoretically by formulating a stage structured model of delay differential equations. Our mathematical analyses identified the threshold intensities of larval competition and the release ratio to avoid the paradox. For Aedes aegypti populations in Los Angeles, our simulations predicted that the paradox would occur if the release number of infected males was less than 6.828 times that of wild males, and 3.71 times the release would increase the wild adult mosquitoes by $ 76.72% $. To avoid the paradox from occurring, we proposed several release strategies to optimize the suppression process.