Critical raw material intensity of electricity generation technologies: A probabilistic and multicriteria approach applied to the European Union

The global energy transition is expected to substantially increase the deployment of renewable electricity technologies in the European Union (EU), intensifying both consumption and dependency on critical raw materials. Existing studies do not support robust comparisons between electricity generation technologies for decision-making in energy planning and policy. In this context, the present study proposes a probabilistic multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) framework to assess and rank electricity generation technologies according to their material requirements in t/MWh. It incorporates at least one method from each major MADM family and includes strategies to enhance resilience against rank reversal. Material consumptions are aggregated into satisfaction or criticality indices, while Monte Carlo simulation captures uncertainty and variability in consumption, lifetimes, and operational conditions. The methodology is applied to the EU including eight electricity generation technologies (wind, solar PV, solar CSP, hydro, biomass and waste, nuclear, coal, and natural gas) and 33 raw materials. Despite minor differences among MADM methods, the framework consistently converges on a ranking in which wind and solar PV are the most material-critical technologies, followed by solar CSP; coal, natural gas and nuclear occupy intermediate positions; biomass and waste, and hydro are the least critical alternatives. These findings highlight that EU decarbonisation strategies must be complemented by targeted raw material policies, including diversification of supply, recycling, material substitution, and strategic planning, to ensure that the transition to renewable electricity is not only low-carbon but also materially resilient and secure.