Assessing energy security during renewable energy system transitions under material constraints

This study assesses how material constraints influence the performance and resilience of renewable energy systems during low-carbon transitions. A bottom-up energy system model is used to simulate the evolution of the energy system including photovoltaic, wind, solar thermal, battery storage, and hydrogen technologies along with fossil-fuel based technologies under alternative climate policy pathways from 2026 to 2050. Material requirements are explicitly linked to technology deployment, allowing consistent evaluation of resource extraction, imports, and system-level impacts. Energy security is assessed using a set of indicators covering technology performance, material availability, economic conditions, primary energy scarcity, and environmental outcomes, that are aggregated into a composite index. Results show that carbon pricing policies accelerate renewable and storage deployment but significantly increase material demand and supply-chain exposure. In contrast, emission constraint policies moderate storage expansion and material use, reducing import dependence and improving overall energy security despite lower renewable penetration. The findings highlight the importance of material-aware planning for renewable energy systems and provide practical insights for designing sustainable and secure energy transition pathways.