Renewable Energy Transition and National Energy Security: Opportunities, Constraints, and Policy Trade-offs

The rapid global transition toward Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) represents a profound paradigm shift in macroeconomic planning and national security. While mitigating catastrophic climate change, this transition fundamentally alters the nature of energy vulnerability, shifting risks from geopolitical fossil fuel dependencies to critical mineral supply chains and grid intermittency. This study empirically investigates the asymmetrical impact of renewable energy deployment on the Energy Security Index (ESI) across a panel of 15 energy-importing and transitioning economies from 2005 to 2024. Utilizing an advanced Non-linear Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) methodology, the research unravels the complex "Energy Trilemma." The findings reveal a critical trade-off: while VRE expansion significantly improves long-term energy sovereignty and mitigates price volatility, short-term positive shocks in VRE capacity drastically escalate grid integration costs and critical mineral import dependencies. The study offers vital policy blueprints for Eurasian and emerging markets regarding grid modernization, battery storage scaling, and diversified procurement strategies. Author: Bexruz Sobirov, Tashkent State University of Economics, Economics Faculty, group i54i.