Designed for a secure transition – a systematic review of supply security in energy system models

While renewable electricity has gained traction, the transition to a low-carbon energy system is still subject to large uncertainties about future energy use and supply portfolios. In the light of recent disruptive events such as geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions, it is evident that energy transition strategies should consider unforeseen disturbances. In this paper, we conduct a systematic review of 179 energy system modelling studies from Scopus and Web of Science based on the PRISMA guidelines. We include articles considering various aspects of energy security, focusing on large-scale system models with a long-term techno-economic design perspective. Our analysis reveals significant variation among studies in three key areas: the security aspects evaluated, the types of disruptions considered, and the methodological approaches employed. While weather variability is commonly examined, other security threats such as climate change or geopolitical disruptions receive less attention.