Reassessing the EU’s LNG expansion strategy: Geopolitical dependencies, energy security, and climate goals after the Russian invasion of Ukraine

This paper examines the necessity and implications of the EU’s rapid expansion of liquefied natural gas import capacities following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The conflict revealed structural vulnerabilities in Europe’s energy system and prompted an unprecedented acceleration of investments under REPowerEU. Using a combined techno-economic and policy-oriented approach, the study evaluates whether this expansion was required to ensure energy security and how it affects regional resilience, economic efficiency, and environmental sustainability. The analysis integrates a model of the European gas transmission network with the energy trilemma framework, focusing on scenarios that represent different stages of infrastructure development. Particular attention is given to North-Eastern, Central-Eastern, and South-Eastern Europe, regions often marginalized in European energy security debates but facing acute challenges of energy affordability and poverty. The results indicate that, while liquefied natural gas expansion improved short-term supply flexibility, large parts of the new infrastructure remain underutilized by 2035. In contrast, targeted investment in internal interconnectors achieves comparable or higher security of supply at lower cost and with reduced emissions. The findings highlight that expanding liquefied natural gas capacity risks locking in fossil assets and deepening regional disparities, especially under declining gas demand. Strengthening cross-border coordination, integrating social metrics into infrastructure planning, and linking gas grid upgrades to future hydrogen corridors would enhance both efficiency and equity. The study concludes that Europe’s long-term energy resilience is best secured through system optimization and coordinated governance rather than further fossil infrastructure expansion.