Renewable energy and energy security under geopolitical vulnerability: New evidence from fragile regions

This study investigates the strategic determinants of energy security across 13 geopolitically vulnerable and fragile transition economies from 2000 to 2023. Given the compounding risks of global shocks, we examine how renewable energy deployment, industrialization, urbanization, and energy import dependence interact under varying degrees of institutional stress. Methodologically, the study addresses common diagnostic challenges, including cross-sectional dependence, slope heterogeneity, and endogeneity, by employing a robust suite of second-generation panel econometric frameworks. To capture institutional and geopolitical vulnerability, the Fragile States Index (FSI) is incorporated into the model specification. The empirical findings show that renewable energy deployment and industrialization significantly bolster long-term energy security, whereas structural institutional fragility and high energy import dependence are severe impediments. Crucially, the estimates confirm that high institutional fragility acts as a structural barrier that reduces the efficiency of green energy infrastructure investments. Consequently, policy frameworks in these vulnerable regimes must prioritize mitigating institutional risk premiums alongside accelerating renewable energy diversification to secure continuous energy stability.