Antibiotic Supplier Concentration and Import Unit Values in Global Trade: Evidence From Annual Customs Records

This analysis examines whether increasing geographic concentration in global antibiotic exports corresponds to higher import unit values. UN Comtrade supplies 3,769 customs records covering 191 reporting economies, aggregated into fifteen annual observations from 2010 to 2024. Descriptive comparisons, Pearson and Spearman correlations, and exploratory sensitivity checks evaluate three complementary concentration measures. The Herfindahl Hirschman index increased by 92.42 percent, while the largest exporter share rose by 19.09 percentage points. However, correlations between concentration and import unit values remained modest, ranging from 0.221 to 0.253. Rank correlations were slightly negative, and excluding the initial observation largely eliminated positive linear alignment. Restricting imports to records without estimated weights likewise produced correlations near zero or negative. These patterns distinguish persistent geographic consolidation from an expenditure relationship sensitive to timing and record composition. The contribution is an empirical qualification of interpretations equating geographic dominance with rising antibiotic prices. International procurement monitoring should assess concentration alongside expenditure composition and weight coverage before drawing affordability conclusions.