From Carbon Trading to Transition Finance: Institutional Alignment in Indonesia

Indonesia’s carbon exchange and sustainable-finance taxonomy evolved along distinct regulatory pathways in 2023–2026. This qualitative documentary study examines when carbon-unit records can corroborate transition-finance disclosures without being mistaken for evidence of taxonomy eligibility. It compares national carbon-pricing legislation, amended exchange rules, the Carbon Unit Registry regulation, and successive Indonesian sustainable-finance taxonomies. Passage-level coding distinguishes binding legal requirements, regulator guidance, institutional announcements, and proposed causal mechanisms. The findings identify separate evidentiary objects: issuance and disposition of carbon units, mitigation-use authorisation, technical screening of financed activities, entity and portfolio classification, and financial disclosure. The July 2026 registry rule differentiates registry functions and carbon-unit uses, while the March 2026 taxonomy update highlights version-specific screening and safeguards. Neither set of instruments establishes successful migration, improved market liquidity, lower verification costs, or financing additionality. The article advances a provisional bounded-alignment framework based on scope-specific traceability, dated classifications, claim reconciliation, and accountable correction. Its economic implications remain testable propositions rather than measured outcomes.