The green gap between digital visibility and financial performance in sustainable consumer brands

Despite substantial growth in social media marketing (SMM) research, evidence of whether eco-brand digital visibility translates into financial performance remains absent from the literature. Most existing studies measure consumer attitudes and purchase intentions rather than observed market outcomes, leaving the green gap, the divergence between sustainability intentions and actual behavior, untested at the firm financial level. This study addresses that gap through an exploratory multiple-case analysis of four publicly listed, sustainability-positioned consumer brands (Allbirds, Beyond Meat, Oatly, and The Honest Company) observed monthly from January 2021 to December 2024, combining 48 months of Wikipedia pageview data as a digital public attention proxy with audited annual financial statements. Four analytical layers are applied: non-parametric trend analysis, correlational analysis, fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis, and Fuzzy Cognitive Map scenario simulation. Within this four-firm sample, the evidence supports H1, does not support H2, and yields inconclusive or preliminary results for H3 and H4; H5 is illustrated by simulation rather than tested. Aggregate eco-brand digital attention declined by 38.6% over the study period (slope = − 710 pageviews/month; Mann-Kendall with autocorrelation correction z = − 4.39, p < 0.001), consistent with novelty decay and the accumulation of greenwashing skepticism. Firm-specific attention-to-revenue ratios do not differ reliably by product category (39.8 versus 25.7 pageviews per USD million, p = 0.117), with overlap between categories, so the category-moderation hypothesis is not supported. No association between firm-specific attention and financial outcomes is detected in the full sample, though leave-one-firm-out re-estimation shows the result is sensitive to the exclusion of individual firms, so the decoupling pattern is reported as inconclusive rather than established. The preliminary fuzzy-set analysis points to margin improvement combined with product category as the strongest candidate configuration for revenue growth, though a configuration including high attention approaches the same threshold. FCM scenario simulation illustrates asymmetric system dynamics: attention losses produce disproportionately larger financial deterioration than equivalent attention gains produce improvement. These exploratory findings suggest avenues for sustainable-consumption research and anti-greenwashing policy design.