Extreme Heat in the Middle East and North Africa: Observed Trends, Future Projections and Impacts on Health, Labour, Water and Food Security

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is one of the world's climate-change hotspots. Observations show that the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East has warmed by about 0.45 °C per decade since 1981, almost twice the global rate, and that the number of very hot days has roughly doubled since 1970. This review synthesises observational and modelling studies of extreme heat in MENA and its consequences. Under a scenario in which global emissions decline after 2040, the number of extremely hot days per year is projected to rise from about 16 in 1986–2005 to about 80 by mid-century and 118 by the end of the century; under business-as-usual emissions, about 200 unusually hot days per year are projected, and the maximum temperature of the hottest days may approach 50 °C. Regional models project the emergence of super- and ultra-extreme heatwaves of unprecedented intensity and duration, while studies of wet-bulb temperature show that the humid coasts of the Gulf and Red Sea could experience conditions approaching the limits of human tolerance. The consequences include heat-related illness and mortality, reduced outdoor labour productivity, higher electricity and water demand, crop and livestock stress and threats to urban liveability. The review evaluates adaptation measures, including heat-health early warning systems, occupational heat standards, urban greening and cool materials, building-energy efficiency and climate-resilient agriculture, and identifies research priorities for the region.