FHAT Technical Note 067: Double-Thrust Lifecycles in 3× Inverse Semiconductor ETFs — A Crisis Analog Study (2000–2026)

Could the November 2026 SOXS surge develop into a second upward thrust like Q4 2018? This exploratory study compares the two episodes and examines four semiconductor stress regimes using actual SOXS prices and theoretical daily-reset −3× simulations based on the SOX index. The 2018 episode comprises two distinct lifecycles of 40 and 24 trading days, while a simulated 2008 episode lasts 84 days—illustrating why the previously observed 71-day SOXS maximum is not a fixed ceiling. Historical analogs provide conditional reference points rather than a predetermined forecast. Includes an English report and Chinese summary. KeywordsFHAT; SOXS; SOXL; inverse ETFs; leveraged ETFs; semiconductor sector; historical analogs; double thrust; lifecycle duration; weekly moving averages; post-peak drawdown; daily reset; financial crises; risk management