Integrated assessment of environmental risks of soil degradation in the Ukrainian ForestSteppe based on climatic and agroecological indicators

The article is devoted to the study of the formation of ecological risks caused by the physical and chemical degradation of soils in the Ukrainian ForestSteppe under the influence of climate change and agricultural intensification. The aim of the study is the scientific substantiation and development of the Integrated Ecological Risk Index (IERI) for the comprehensive assessment and mapping of soil degradation in the Forest-Steppe of Ukraine under conditions of climatic instability. The research methodology is based on a systems approach and additive modeling of three components: climate exposure (Selyaninov’s hydrothermal coefficient — HTC), anthropogenic pressure (arability, erodibility), and soil degradation vulnerability (humus content, NPK balance). Data sets for the period 1986–2022 were analyzed, including indicators from the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center and results of the state agrochemical monitoring of agricultural lands. The results established an increase in the average annual temperature in the region by 1.2°C, which, against the background of high precipitation variability, triggers the aridization of the eastern Forest-Steppe (HTC<0.90) and the risk of waterlogging in the western provinces. Critical anthropogenic pressure was identified: the level of land arability reaches 80.8%, creating a high risk of erosion for 27.5% of arable land. Long-term monitoring confirmed progressive dehumification (a decrease in humus content from 3.38% to 3.20%) and a stable deficiency of macronutrients, with availability reaching only 36–72% of the optimum. The developed IERI allowed for the identification of ecological risk focal points (Kharkiv, Poltava, and Cherkasy regions), where the synergy of natural and anthropogenic factors threatens irreversible loss of soil fertility. For the first time for the conditions of the Forest-Steppe, a unified methodological approach is proposed that combines hydrothermal and agroecological parameters into a single prognostic model. The IERI mapping results serve as a scientific tool for identifying the least resilient components of agroecosystems and justifying the transition to regenerative agriculture systems through the use of modern biologically integrated technologies.