Weather Considerations for Airport Capacity Decision Support Development

Airport capacity prediction is a critical factor in air traffic management (ATM) decision-making because airports form key nodes in the aviation system network. Airport capacity is driven by which runways are available and what procedures can be used on them, both of which are heavily influenced by weather impacts. This paper details what weather factors need to be considered when predicting airport capacity for ATM decision support development. The factors are first described in general, including impacts of winds, convection, precipitation, ceiling, visibility, and snow/ice. Then a specific case study is presented of how weather impacts on airport capacity are being predicted for an ATM decision support tool called the Airport Capacity Evaluation and Prediction Tool (ACEPT), being prototyped at Toronto Pearson International Airport in partnership with NAV CANADA. The performance of the current ACEPT algorithms is described, as well as a discussion of future areas of refinement. Lessons learned from this activity are presented to help inform future technology development activities.