Empirical Juridical-Digital Twin for Dynamic Incentive Optimization of Plastic Waste Management in Krui Coastal Tourism

Background: Krui's coastal tourism sector generates an estimated 3,200 t of single-use plastic annually, yet real-time monitoring and enforceable legal mechanisms remain absent, undermining circular-economy targets. Objectives: To construct a juridical-digital twin that fuses stochastic waste-generation modelling, vessel-operational logistics, and Indonesian Civil Code provisions (Arts 1320, 1338, 1243) for dynamic incentive optimization and compliance verification. Methods: Daily waste per vessel is modelled with a log-normal distribution calibrated on 120 vessel-days; fuel consumption follows the empirically derived function Fi,t=alpha·Speedi,tᵇᵉᵗᵃ·Loadi,tᵍᵃᵐᵐᵃ·Hs,tδ. A mixed-integer linear program minimizes total social cost (collection, fuel, processing, legal penalties) subject to capacity, wave-height (H_s 200 m for exceeding 30 min) and liquidated damages per Art. 1243 (IDR 1,000,000 per minute). Results: Calibration yields significant coefficients (alpha=0.42, beta=0.87, gamma=0.31, δ=0.12; punder 0.01) and an AIC-selected model (AIC=312.4, BIC=327.1). Monte-Carlo sensitivity analysis shows incentive revenue fluctuates within +/-12 % under cost-parameter uncertainty, while compliance rates improve from 68 % to 92 % when smart-contract enforcement is activated. Published in Journal of Coastal Frontiers and Applied Development (JCFAD). CERN Zenodo Record: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.24090695. Publisher: PT CHAIN ASIA CONECT Research and Development Division.