Long-term Depletion and Drought Propagation of GRACE Total Water Storage across Texas, USA

Groundwater withdrawals and recurrent droughts have produced substantial water storage declines across Texas; however, the magnitude, persistence, and recovery of these losses vary over time and among regions. This study assesses the impacts of water use and climate extremes on the water cycle using total water storage anomalies (TWSA) from GRACE and GRACE Follow On (FO) satellites. The GRACE (-FO) TWSA record was extended back to 1979 using climate-driven reconstruction. Results show that episodic drought superimposed upon a baseline of chronic groundwater overexploitation resulted in a net TWS decline of 115 ± 24 km³ from 2002 to 2025 using GRACE (-FO), ~6 times annual water use in 2024 (18.5 km 3 ). The largest TWS declines occurred in the Ogallala (31% of the TWS decline), Edwards–Trinity Plateau (ETP) (12%), and Trinity (9%) aquifers. Groundwater-storage declines constituted a large share of TWS depletion (median 78% [46%-100%]). Soil-moisture trends varied widely among products, ranging from 1–41% of statewide TWS decline. Although reservoir storage declined sharply during the 2011-2015 drought, storage recovered, and the net reservoir-storage decline (2002–2025) was only ~3% of the statewide TWS decline. During the 2011–2015 drought water deficits progressed from rainfall to soil moisture, TWSA, and reservoir storage with TWSA deficits persisting longer than others. GRACE data track variations in water storage caused by groundwater overexploitation amplified by droughts at regional to statewide scales, supporting water resource management and drought planning in Texas.