Designing for emergence: A bricolage approach to causal inference in systems change

As methodological bricolage is increasingly positioned as a response to complexity in contemporary philanthropic strategies, it is becoming more widely adopted within systems change evaluations. Yet, questions remain about what rigorous application of bricolage looks like and how quality can be assured. This paper contributes to this growing body of knowledge by introducing the concept of an evaluation design trajectory: an intentional progression of inquiry, causal questions and methodological choices, anchored in an evolving theoretical understanding of ‘how change happened’ within a complex system. We situate the concept within the literature on systems change and methodological bricolage, then present a climate adaptation advocacy portfolio evaluation as a worked example of its application in practice. We argue that bricolage can enhance rigour when design choices are intentional, coherent and anchored in evolving causal questions, while highlighting lessons and practical considerations that this approach raises for evaluators and commissioners.