Intensification of compound wind drought and heatwave events under climate change

Compound wind drought and heatwave (WDHW) events, defined as the co-occurrence of low wind speeds and high temperatures, pose growing risks to future power system stability. Yet their future evolution and underlying physical drivers remain poorly constrained. Using daily output from 27 downscaled CMIP6 models (~25 km), we identify a widespread intensification of these compound events over global land areas. Across the low- to high-CO 2 scenarios, global event frequency is projected to increase by 100 to 750% by 2100, with event duration lengthening by 80 to 300%. Mechanistically, this intensification is mainly driven by thermodynamic warming and widespread wind stilling, and further amplified regionally by enhanced climate variability and strengthened wind–temperature coupling associated with poleward jet streams. Applying an emergent-constraint framework that links observed historical trends to future projections can reduce intermodel variance by 10 to 40% at both global and regional scales. These results provide a physically grounded assessment of future compound WDHW risks, with direct implications for climate-impact assessment and energy-system planning.