A new ensemble of metrics for quantifying free-throw shooting performance using NBA player-tracking data

With the NBA’s adoption of in-game limb tracking in 2023, Sony’s Hawk-Eye system now captures high-resolution, 3D poses of players and the ball 60 times per second. Linking these data to key events opens a new era in NBA analytics. Here, we leverage a large dataset of 21,964 shot attempts from 72 NBA players to introduce a novel ensemble of metrics for evaluating free-throw shooting. Inspired by baseball analytics, we introduce command, which quantifies the quality of a free throw by measuring a shooter’s accuracy and precision near the basket’s bullseye. This metric recognizes that some makes (or misses) are better than others and captures a player’s ability to execute quality attempts consistently. We demonstrate that command provides more diagnostic information about shot execution than traditional make-or-miss statistics. In a within-season temporal holdout, early-season command predicted late-season shooting percentage at least as well as early-season shooting percentage itself. To identify what is associated with command, we define launch-based metrics assessing consistency in release velocity, angle, and 3D position. Players with greater touch, i.e., more consistent launch dynamics, exhibit stronger command as they can reliably control their shot trajectory. Finally, we develop a physics model to identify the range of launch conditions that result in a make and to determine which launch conditions are most robust to small perturbations. This framework reveals “safe” launch regions and identifies the specific launch parameters most associated with shooting inconsistency for individual players, providing a diagnostic framework that could inform future player development work.