Aligning knowledge-based exports with regional demand: a reverse market selection framework for Iran–CIS trade

Knowledge-based exports are important for economic diversification and technological upgrading in Asia, but export promotion remains weakly linked to verified external demand. This study develops and applies a Reverse International Market Selection framework that begins with a predefined target region rather than existing export products. It integrates supply-side data on Iranian knowledge-based firms and products with demand-side trade data from Commonwealth of Independent States markets. The supply-side model uses an official database of more than 10,000 firms and 18,000 products, while the demand-side model assesses market size, growth, and competitive concentration. The procedure identifies 713 products aligned with Iranian capabilities and CIS demand. Multinomial logistic regression shows that firm age, size, government support, and market attractiveness are significantly associated with export performance, with nonlinear effects. Descriptive comparisons reveal differences between demand-based export priorities and realized export rankings, suggesting a potential role for path dependence, resource constraints, and business networks.