The predictive validity of the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA) for men’s intimate partner violence recidivism in fixed follow-ups of 1 to 5 years.

OBJECTIVE: Intimate partner violence (IPV) recidivism risk assessment is a routine part of the police response to incidents involving assaults between marital, cohabiting, or dating partners. Reliance on such tools to inform critical decisions about risk management and victim safety requires ongoing research to ensure validity and utility for emerging practice issues, such as estimating risk over specific time periods. HYPOTHESES: We predicted that the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA) would predict IPV recidivism in data from three police organizations, but with significant variability between sites. METHOD: We tested the ODARA's predictive validity among 567 men charged for IPV against a female partner during an average 6-year follow-up and fixed follow-up periods of 3 months to 5 years at risk. At 3 months, IPV recidivism was 3%, and AUC was small (.61) and nonsignificant. By 3 years, 74% of observed recidivism had occurred, with over 100 recidivist events. Data were combined with comparable rates from Hegel et al. (2022) and Olver and Jung (2017) to tabulate new 3-year IPV recidivism estimates from 977 men across four Canadian provinces. CONCLUSIONS: Low observed recidivism within 1 year prohibits interpretation of risk for more imminent violence, but 3-year fixed follow-ups are a reasonable standard for IPV recidivism research. The new recidivism estimates for the likelihood of IPV charges within 3 years can be used to interpret ODARA scores. Future research should replicate results in additional populations and develop standard risk levels for IPV. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2026 APA, all rights reserved).