Climate, cattle, and conflict in the Lake Chad Basin: an exploratory political ecology of pastoral mobility and livestock-related violence

Climate variability is often used to explain insecurity in the Lake Chad Basin (LCB), yet the mechanisms linking environmental stress to specific forms of rural violence remain poorly specified. This exploratory, qualitative-dominant mixed-methods study examines how climate variability, pastoral mobility, resource access, governance, and livestock-related violence interact in selected border regions of Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria. It combines 13 purposive interviews with descriptive NASA POWER climate observations (2010–2024) and 726 livestock-related ACLED conflict events (2012–2024). The climate series show marked spatial and temporal variability rather than a simple linear deterioration. Interview and event data indicate that water points, grazing areas, and transhumance corridors can be sites of both livelihood concentration and heightened exposure to resource disputes, livestock theft, and armed-group predation. Political ecology helps explain these divergent outcomes through access rules, state presence, border governance, and livestock markets that mediate risk. The findings support integrating climate adaptation with pastoral governance, conflict prevention, livestock-market oversight, and cross-border cooperation within existing Lake Chad Basin regional frameworks.