Hybrid Valuation-Finance Model Integrating Real-Time Market Index, Customary Ownership Mapping, and Credit-Risk-Adjusted Financing for Dammar Resin in Pesisir Barat

Background: Smallholder producers of dammar resin in Pesisir Barat encounter chronic financing constraints because market prices fluctuate sharply, customary land-ownership rights are often undocumented, and lenders lack reliable credit-risk metrics. Objectives: This study aims to construct a rigorously validated hybrid valuation-finance model that (i) captures real-time price dynamics, (ii) quantifies customary ownership certainty under Indonesian Civil Code (KUHPerdata) provisions, and (iii) integrates stochastic credit-risk adjustments into financing costs. Methods: A Real-Time Price Index (RTPI) was generated from high-frequency transaction data on the Jakarta Commodity Exchange (JCE) covering January 2022-December 2025; volatility (σ_price) was estimated using GARCH(1,1) models with a 95 % confidence interval. Ownership certainty was operationalised through an OwnershipScore derived from hak ulayat certificates, interpreted doctrinally via Articles 1320, 1338, and 1243 of KUHPerdata, and calibrated by a logistic regression linking documented tenure to dispute incidence (R^2=0.71). Credit-risk-adjusted financing rates were modelled as r_adj = r_base + lambda·σ_price·Delta t + μ·(PD·LGD)·f(OwnershipScore), where PD/LGD are monthly default-loss parameters sourced from the Indonesian Financial Services Authority and f(.) is a bounded transformation reflecting legal risk mitigation. Physical logistics constraints-thermal degradation (Arrhenius-based decay), moisture-induced spoilage, and transport-time loss-were incorporated into a cost function C_adj = C_fixed + C_var·exp(beta·T)·(1-θ·OwnershipScore). Published in: Journal of Coastal Frontiers & Applied Development (JCFAD), Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026), pp. 1–12. Official publisher: PT CHAIN ASIA CONECT Research & Development Division.