Strategic Opportunities and Key Challenges for China's Marine Energy Resource Development under the Framework of the 15th Five‑Year Plan

The 15th Five‑Year Plan period represents a critical window for China's transition from a maritime nation to a maritime power. This paper, guided by the outline of the 15th Five‑Year Plan and related policy documents, employs a combination of policy text analysis and industrial empirical analysis to systematically explore pathways and strategies for the efficient development and utilization of marine energy resources. The study finds that the 15th Five‑Year Plan provides a clear top‑level design for marine energy development, with three major strategic opportunities emerging: the "100‑million‑kilowatt" target for deep‑water offshore wind drives leapfrog industrial growth, with China's exploitable deep‑water wind resources exceeding 1.2 billion kilowatts and key technologies such as floating wind turbines having achieved major breakthroughs; deep‑water oil and gas have become the core replacement area for reserve and production increases, with the South China Sea containing 35 billion tons of oil and gas resources, and China having systematically mastered the full suite of exploration and development technologies in the deep‑water domain; the large‑scale utilization of marine energy opens a new track, aiming for an installed capacity of 400,000 kilowatts by 2030, with overall levels entering the world's first tier. At the same time, challenges cannot be ignored: deep‑water technologies and equipment face "bottleneck" risks, with high dependence on foreign core components; deep‑water project costs remain high, with fixed foundations costing approximately RMB 12,000–13,000 per kilowatt and floating foundations exceeding RMB 20,000, while operation and maintenance costs are 5 to 10 times those of onshore wind power, compounded by declining bidding prices for electricity, putting severe pressure on returns; inter‑departmental coordination mechanisms are inadequate, and marine use approvals face obstacles; and risks of ecological conflicts and spatial competition are emerging. In response to these challenges, it is recommended to intensify research on key core technologies to enhance equipment self‑reliance; explore diversified "offshore wind +" integration models to achieve multiple benefits through multi‑use of marine space; improve coordination mechanisms for deep‑water development and streamline approval processes; and uphold ecological priority by improving environmental impact assessment systems for deep‑water development, thereby promoting a comprehensive leap of marine energy development from nearshore to deep‑water areas and from demonstration projects to large‑scale deployment.