Comparison of methods to estimate peak height velocity in Portuguese adolescent male soccer players

Background Peak height velocity (PHV) is essential in soccer for talent identification, training load, and injury prevention.Aim To compare observed PHV from longitudinal data with four predictive methods.Subjects and methods Fifty-six Portuguese male soccer players (12–15 years) from academies provided 170 height records. Observed PHV was modelled using the Preece-Baines-1 method, while estimated PHV was estimated from Mirwald, Fransen, Moore-1, and Moore-2 equations.Results All methods differed from the observed age at peak height velocity (APHV) (p < 0.001), except Moore-2 (p = 0.169). When comparing APHV among prediction methods and the longitudinal reference method across age groups, only Moore-2 showed comparable estimates for the 12–15-year groups (p > 0.080). Early maturers displayed significant differences for all methods (p < 0.001), while among those maturing on-time, only Moore-2 showed no significant difference (p = 0.091). Late maturers exhibited non-significant differences with the Mirwald, Moore-1 and Fransen methods (p > 0.084).Conclusion Moore-2 aligned most closely with the reference method (Preece-Baines-1), particularly for on-time maturers and within the 12–14 age range.