Agri-Food Production, Food Prices and Household Incomes: An Assessment of Economic Access to Food in Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan has reduced the prevalence of undernourishment to below 2.5%, yet economic access to food remains the most challenging pillar of its food security. This paper examines the relationship between agri-food production, food prices and household incomes in Uzbekistan during 2018–2025, using official data from the National Statistics Committee and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). An income-to-food-price affordability index is constructed, and the relationship between agricultural growth and food inflation is examined. Agricultural output increased by 28.5% over 2018–2025, equivalent to an average annual growth rate of 3.2%, while food prices rose by 143.2%, exceeding the increase in the overall consumer price index (131.6%). Between 2020 and 2025, nominal per capita income grew faster than food prices, resulting in a 38.6% increase in the affordability index. The most substantial improvements occurred in 2024–2025, when food inflation declined to 2.4% and 5.5%, respectively. Higher agricultural growth was associated with lower food inflation in the following year (r = −0.59, with a one-year lag). The findings suggest that both agricultural production growth and household income growth contribute to improved economic access to food, although these gains remain strongly influenced by remittance-driven incomes and fluctuations in meat prices. The study recommends measures to enhance livestock productivity, develop market infrastructure and provide targeted support to low-income households.