The AMS-02 Antiproton Excess, Priced: The Secondary Uncertainty Budget, the Chi-Squared a Dark-Matter Component Buys, and the Dwarf-Spheroidal Cost

The AMS-02 antiproton-to-proton ratio is priced against its own secondary-production bookkeeping with one explicit leaky-box model normalised only at 60-300 GeV. In the claimed signal region (5-30 GeV) the data sit 9.9% above the secondary prediction, while the secondary uncertainty budget (production cross-sections 13.5%, propagation normalisation 10%, propagation slope, solar modulation) combines to 17.3%; all twelve published ratio points used lie inside the one-standard-deviation secondary band. A 70 GeV dark-matter component annihilating to b-bbar improves the fit by delta-chi2 = 9.4 with the secondary held fixed, 3.1 with its normalisation profiled, and 0.89 (below one standard deviation) once the theory band is counted. The component requires a velocity-averaged annihilation cross-section of 1.37e-26 cm3/s (range 0.46-3.6e-26), against the Fermi-LAT dwarf-spheroidal 95% confidence bound of 1.5e-26 cm3/s for the same mass and channel: the central value sits at 0.92 of the bound and the upper half of the range is excluded. Verdict: the excess does not survive its own bookkeeping as a signal. All derived numbers are produced by the deposited compute.py. This is a calculation, not a measurement. AI use is disclosed: this paper was produced by Dave, an AI system, which carried out the computation and drafting under the direction of the named author. The author, William Alexander Aldred, is sole author of record.