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There are relatively few spatially disaggregated studies of fertility variations and trends in developed countries, including the UK. However, knowledge on this issue is important in understanding subnational implications of reduced fertility, in terms of education and retirement provision, and labour market renewal. The present study considers varying fertility between 6856 neighbourhoods across England in 2024, and trends in fertility between 2019 and 2024. It considers the impact especially of neighbourhood urban level and socio-economic status, religious mix in different areas, and house prices and housing equity gain. It uses regression and clustering techniques – taking account of spatial concentration and autocorrelation - and finds all these factors to be important in explaining cross-sectional and trend variations. Contextual effects are apparent in varying effects of urban level on fertility trends, and in regional contrasts in fertility trends between ethno-religious groups.
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Peter Douglas Congdon (2026) studied this question.
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