An empirical investigation of factors influencing inbound tourism to India: a gravity model approach

Purpose The present study aims to examine the key economic, institutional and structural factors associated with foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) to India using a panel gravity model of tourism demand. The study specifically investigates the role of per capita GDP, tourism openness, economic remoteness, relative price competitiveness, political instability and pandemic-related shocks in shaping tourism demand from major source countries. Design/methodology/approach The study utilizes a panel dataset comprising 15 major source countries over the period 1997–2022. A sequential econometric approach was adopted to ensure robust empirical inference. Fixed effects estimation was employed to control for unobserved country-specific heterogeneity, while Driscoll–Kraay standard errors were used to account for cross-sectional dependence, heteroskedasticity and serial correlation. The Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) estimator was employed as a robustness check. Panel unit root and co-integration tests were also conducted to assess the statistical properties of the data. Findings The findings indicate that per capita GDP and tourism openness of source countries are positively and significantly associated with foreign tourist arrivals to India, highlighting the importance of income growth and international tourism integration. In contrast, economic remoteness and pandemic shocks significantly reduce tourism demand. The relative price index and political instability exhibit comparatively weaker and less consistent effects across model specifications. The broad consistency of results across fixed effects, Driscoll–Kraay and PPML estimations supports the robustness of the empirical findings. Research limitations/implications The findings suggest that tourism policy should focus on strengthening engagement with major tourism-generating markets, improving destination accessibility and travel connectivity, facilitating international tourist mobility and strengthening preparedness for global tourism disruptions. The results also highlight the importance of maintaining supportive institutional conditions and improving resilience in India's inbound tourism sector. Practical implications Both at the macro and destination levels, several useful policy implications emerge from the findings of the present study. The empirical results highlight the importance of income levels, tourism openness, travel connectivity, institutional conditions and tourism resilience in shaping international tourism demand for India. Since higher income levels and tourism openness in source countries positively influence tourist inflows, India may strengthen its engagement with major tourism-generating economies through improved tourism promotion strategies and enhanced tourism connectivity. The negative influence of economic remoteness further indicates the importance of improving accessibility, transportation infrastructure and travel convenience for international tourists. In this regard, continued investment in airport modernization, multimodal transport systems, tourism infrastructure and digital tourism services may help improve international tourist accessibility and destination attractiveness. Similarly, findings relating to tourism openness and mobility facilitation suggest that strengthening visa liberalization measures, simplifying travel procedures and expanding the e-visa framework may further support inbound tourism flows to India. The study also highlights the importance of tourism resilience and institutional preparedness amid global shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, tourism policy should increasingly focus on crisis preparedness, adaptive tourism planning, digital tourism services, health-related travel confidence and resilient tourism infrastructure to minimize the adverse effects of future disruptions on tourism-related employment and economic activities. Overall, the findings suggest that policies aimed at improving destination accessibility, facilitating international tourist mobility, maintaining a supportive and predictable tourism policy environment and strengthening tourism resilience should remain central to tourism planning and policy formulation in India. Originality/value The study contributes to the application of gravity-based tourism literature by integrating institutional risk, tourism openness and global shock dimensions within a unified panel gravity framework for an emerging tourism economy. The study provides a context-specific empirical assessment of inbound tourism demand in India and offers implications for tourism policy, destination competitiveness and tourism resilience.