Status and Vulnerability of Refugees, Internally Displaced Persons and Host Families in the Face of the Livelihood Crisis in Northern Benin

Since 2021, armed violence spreading south from the central Sahel has driven refugees from Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria and Togo into northern Benin and uprooted many Beninese households inside their own country. Almost all of them live outside camps, side by side with host families, while aid is still largely allocated by mobility status. Working from a population geography perspective, this paper asks whether that status really tells us who is most vulnerable. A stratified random sample of 250 households (98 host families, 64 internally displaced persons [IDPs] and returnees, 88 refugees and asylum seekers) was drawn from the 2026 multisectoral needs assessment of the Benin Red Cross in Alibori, Atacora and Borgou. Nineteen indicators were grouped into the five capitals of the sustainable livelihoods framework and combined into a livelihood vulnerability index (LVI); food security was measured with an adapted CARI console. The analysis uses χ² and Kruskal-Wallis tests, ordered logit models and ROC curves. The LVI rises from host families (0.443) to IDPs (0.488) and refugees (0.520; p < 0.001), mainly because of natural and financial capital: only 14% of refugees still own livestock, against 39% of hosts, and 56–57% of displaced households have lost their home or belongings. Crisis or emergency coping strategies are reported by 17% of hosts, 33% of IDPs and 39% of refugees. Food insecurity, on the other hand, reaches 73% of all households (CARI ≥ 3) whatever their status, and the status effect vanishes once the capitals are controlled for. Status predicts food insecurity no better than chance (AUC = 0.52), and host families account for 27% of the most vulnerable tercile. Status records a history of loss, but on its own it is a poor targeting rule. Area-based targeting built on household capitals, and open to host families, would serve people better.