Population Dynamics and Carbon Emissions in Nigeria: Re Examining the Population–Environment Nexus in Nigeria

This study examined the determinants of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in Nigeria, focusing on population growth, urbanization, GDP per capita growth, and energy consumption per capita. The study employed annual data covering 1990–2024, sourced from the World Development Indicators (WDI) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The study employed the Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) unit root test, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach for cointegration, and post estimation diagnostic and robustness checks. The KPSS results confirmed that the variables exhibit mixed orders of integration, I(0) and I(1), justifying the application of the ARDL framework. The bounds test further confirmed the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables. The results indicate that population growth has a positive but statistically insignificant long-run effect on CO₂ emissions, while urbanization has significant short-run effects but an insignificant negative long-run effect. GDP per capita growth has a negative and statistically significant long-run effect, whereas energy consumption per capita has a positive and statistically significant long-run effect on CO₂ emissions. The error-correction term indicates that approximately 65% of short-run disequilibrium is corrected within one period. Overall, the findings underscore the importance of clean energy transition, energy efficiency, and sustainable urban development in reducing CO₂ emissions while supporting Nigeria’s economic development.