Pengaruh Harga Gabah, Belanja Pemerintah, Luas Lahan, dan Nilai Tukar Petani terhadap Tenaga Kerja Pertanian di Indonesia

Agriculture remains an important source of employment in Indonesia, yet the number of agricultural workers has fluctuated amid structural transformation, economic shocks, and technological change. This study analyzes the effects of the price of dried unhusked rice (gabah kering giling/GKG), government agricultural expenditure, agricultural land area, and the farmers' terms of trade (Nilai Tukar Petani/NTP) on the number of agricultural workers in Indonesia. Using annual secondary time-series data for 1995–2025 from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and official government publications, the study applies the Engle–Granger two-step Error Correction Model (ECM) in EViews 10. The Augmented Dickey–Fuller test on the long-run residuals rejects the null of no cointegration (ADF statistic = −6.74, p < 0.001; 5% critical value = −2.998). The GKG price has a negative and significant effect on agricultural employment in both the short and long run, while government expenditure, land area, and NTP are individually insignificant. Together, the four variables significantly affect agricultural employment, with an adjusted R-squared of 0.657 in the short run and 0.311 in the long run. Higher output prices thus do not necessarily increase labor absorption, possibly because producers adopt labor-saving technology. Policymakers should therefore combine price stabilization with skills development for agricultural workers.