Prison suicide in Italy, 1992–2025: a time-series analysis of long-term trends and changepoints

PURPOSE: Suicide is one of the leading causes of death among people in prison, yet long-term trends in prison suicide rates in Italy have received limited empirical attention. This study aimed to examine annual suicide rates in Italian prisons from 1992 to 2025 using official data from the Italian Ministry of Justice. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: Suicide rates were expressed per 10,000 people present in prison (annual average). A Bayesian ensemble time-series decomposition algorithm, BEAST, was used to identify temporal trends and potential changepoints. FINDINGS: Prison suicide rates were broadly stable or declining from 1992 through the early 2010s, then increased during the mid-to-late 2010s. The main analysis suggested a further change around 2022, after which rates were approximately stable rather than continuing to rise. A complementary analysis also identified a change in trend during the mid-2010s, but did not identify a separate change around 2022. The average rate in 2023-2025 remained higher than the average before 2014. Overall, both analyses indicate that the long-term pattern shifted during the 2010s, although the exact timing of that shift remains uncertain. ORIGINALITY/VALUE: To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to characterize more than three decades of national prison-suicide trends in Italy using complementary changepoint methods, thereby quantifying both the timing of major temporal shifts and the uncertainty surrounding them. These findings indicate that prison suicide rates in Italy have entered a distinct and concerning phase over the past decade.